China is now so close to the United States in quantum computing that the lead may be measured in “nanoseconds,” according to 2025 Physics Nobel winner John Martinis. That warning matters well beyond the lab.
A future quantum machine could help crack today’s encryption, raising the stakes for military communications and critical infrastructure, but it could also help scientists model molecules and materials that are still too complex for ordinary computers.
In other words, this is not just a tech bragging contest.
IBM explains quantum computing in simple terms. Classical computers use bits that are either 0 or 1. Quantum computers use qubits, which can hold combinations of both states at once. That strange behavior is what makes the field so powerful for chemistry and materials science.
And yes, there is serious money behind it. But the numbers are more grounded than some of the hype online. McKinsey’s 2025 Quantum Technology Monitor says the total quantum technology market could reach as much as $97 billion by 2035, with quantum computing itself valued at $28 billion to $72 billion.
Martinis’ concern also has history behind it. Google’s 2019 Nature paper said its 54 qubit Sycamore processor completed a benchmark task in about 200 seconds that a top classical supercomputer would need around 10,000 years to finish. China answered fast.
A 2020 Science paper on the Jiuzhang photonic system reported a result that researchers said would take a classical supercomputer about 600 million years.
Then, in March 2025, the University of Science and Technology of China said its 105 qubit Zuchongzhi 3.0 processor pushed the benchmark even further. That is why this race no longer feels abstract.
So where does the environment come in? Right where daily life meets hard science. IBM says quantum systems are especially promising for chemistry and material science, which could eventually help researchers discover better batteries, more efficient industrial materials, and smarter energy solutions.
Think about the electric bill, or that sticky summer heat we all know. Faster materials discovery could matter there too, at least to a large extent. And IBM’s latest March 2026 announcement already points to quantum computing being used to study complex molecular behavior in ways that were previously out of reach.
For now, though, this is still a race with big technical hurdles and no instant finish line.
The machines that could truly threaten modern encryption are not here yet, which is exactly why governments and companies are already moving toward post quantum protections.
