The United States is looking harder at Africa’s mineral map as supply chain anxiety grows around the metals that sit inside modern weapons.
A recent South China Morning Post report, citing people familiar with the matter, said U.S. defense reserves may cover only about two months of rare earth needs. That specific figure has not been publicly confirmed by the Pentagon. Still, the broader weakness is not really in dispute.
In February, a senior Defense Department official told senators that China controls 95% of global heavy rare earth output, while the United States imports almost all of what it uses in that category.
Why does that matter? Because these minerals are not some distant mining story. They help power radar, submarines, missiles, lasers, and the F-35. They also turn up in the kind of everyday tech most people barely think about, from smartphones to electric motors.
On March 15, Lynas said its U.S. unit signed a binding letter of intent with Washington for a four year rare earth oxide supply deal worth about $96 million. That looks a lot more like urgency than routine procurement.
Africa’s critical minerals are drawing new US attention
And that is where Africa comes in. The Democratic Republic of the Congo accounted for an estimated 73% of global mined cobalt output in 2025, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
South Africa, for its part, has already laid out a national strategy that frames its minerals base as a strategic asset for aerospace, defense, and advanced manufacturing.
USGS data also shows meaningful rare earth reserves in South Africa and Tanzania, a reminder that the continent is not short on geology.
Botswana’s rare earth deposit shows promise but also risk
Botswana is drawing fresh attention too, though this part needs some caution. Exploration updates from Tsodilo Resources in January said its Gcwihaba project contains all 15 rare earth elements on the 2025 U.S. critical minerals list, along with cobalt, copper, nickel, and vanadium.
Promising, yes. But early exploration results are not the same thing as a bankable supply chain. Mines need roads, power, permits, processing capacity, and political stability. That is the boring part of the story, maybe, but it is also the part that decides whether minerals actually reach factories.
The US still needs a full rare earth supply chain
At the end of the day, Washington does not just need more rock in the ground. It needs a full chain that can hold under pressure. Africa could become a bigger part of that answer, for the most part because the resource base is there.
But unless the U.S. and its partners help build refining and magnet capacity alongside mining, the dependence problem may simply move from one map to another.
The official statement was published on the U.S. Department of Defense website.
